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The other day I was getting ready for my morning shower. I followed my normal protocol: checked to see that I had an adequate amount of body wash and shampoo, ran the water momentarily to ensure the drain’s clearance, connected my phone and Beats Pill, and perused Spotify to curate a shower playlist. A morning routine that is now ritualistic. 

Creating the playlist is normally a three-five minute process, comprised of an inner dialogue that escalates into a minor argument, resulting in self-concession. My morning mood will dictate the playlist’s direction: if I wake up spritely, I’ll select fun, positive songs like DRAM’s “Broccoli” (I don't care that this song is more overplayed than “Hotline Bling” and has been co-opted by the Jappy community—it’s hot and will undoubtedly paint a smile); if I have a rigorous schedule awaiting me, I’ll choose energizing tracks to channel my focus, like Travis Scott’s “Oh My Dis Side”; and somedays, when I ain’t got shit to do, I’ll turn to the stoner rappers to clear my mind in preparation for a day of bong hits and Seth Rogen comedies. The other day I woke up like Craig on Friday—I didn’t have shit to do. 

Fitting my indolent disposition, I lazily shuffled Curren$y’s 2015 Canal Street Confidential album—an underrated project in Spitta’s dense library. The album’s microcosmic slow-spoken, contact high-inducing track, “Superstar” featuring Ty Dolla $ign, mirrored the shower’s early stages: heating up, but not too hot. The album and shower warmed with 808 Mafia’s produced joint, “Drive By” featuring Future, encouraging me to rhythmically shake the shampoo out of my hair in lieu of scrubbing. While limiting my full-body flairs to combat impending whiplash, a forgotten track creeped out of the Beats Pill: “Winning” featuring Wiz Khalifa. 

“Oh, no way,” I whispered to myself, surprised that this stoner duo joint (yes, pun intended) escaped my mind. The exceedingly surprising fact, however, was that this hazy situation retreated Wiz to his natural weed habitat of creating serene, dope, pothead friendly music—the foundational sub-genre that established his superstardom. I quickly reflected on my former Wiz fondness, derived from his early projects, Flight School, Burn After Rolling, Kush & Orange Juice, and Rolling Papers. Remembering his past glory temporarily screwed a smile on my face. Remembering his current status quickly unhinged it.  

Rolling Papers came out in 2011, and is arguably Wiz’ last enjoyable album; his work since then has been an homage to unadulterated whoring. O.N.I.F.C. and his successive work is Khalifa’s shoddy Ray J blowjob footage. Despicable; condemnable; whore. 

My Wiz disdain grew louder as “Winning” faded into silence, knowing that he’s still capable of procuring his former enjoyable sound, but forgoes it by succumbing to superficiality. However, at the end of the day, can I really fault Wiz for capitalizing on his commerciality? For following the trail blazed thousands of times before him? I can’t. While I’d love for Wiz to continue his endearing, chill style that stole my heart once upon a time, I can’t fault the man for chasing money and fame. If he remained loyal to his roots, he’d just be the taller, skinnier, less lazier eye having Curren$y—a relatively unknown to non-Hip-Hop heads. 

No, I really can’t really blame Wiz. His trend is all too familiar, and begs this displeasing question: Do rappers put out their hardest, best work at the beginning-midpoint of their careers? Are they all subject to a self-fulfilling prophecy? I’ve selected several artists—spanning time periods, ages and sub-genres—to help answer this question. 

 

Album grading criteria: Discography chronology, average critical reception, number of dope tracks, efficiency (amount of enjoyable songs out of the total track listing), Zeus Bolts (my personal grading system), and whether or not the selected album is my favorite from the given artist. I’m taking artists’ beginning, midpoint, and most recent albums—three total—and strictly evaluating studio releases.

JAY Z. Years Active: 31, Age: 47

Reasonable Doubt:

  • Year Released: 1996
  • Discography Chronology: First album
  • Average Critical Reception: 82/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: 13
  • Efficiency: 93% 
  • Zeus Bolts: 4.5/5
  • Favorite Album?: Nah

The Black Album:

  • Year Released: 2003
  • Discography Chronology: Sixth album
  • Average Critical Reception: 84/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: 14
  • Efficiency: 100%
  • Zeus Bolts: 4.8/5
  • Favorite Album?: Yup

Magna Carta Holy Grail

  • Year Released: 2013
  • Discography Chronology: 10th album (most recent)
  • Average Critical Reception: 58/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: Eight
  • Efficiency: 50%
  • Zeus Bolts: 3/5
  • Favorite Album?: Nah

 

KANYE. Years Active: 21, Age: 39

 

The College Dropout:

  • Year Released: 2004
  • Discography Chronology: First album
  • Average Critical Reception: 87/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks (omitting skits): 14
  • Efficiency (omitting skits): 87.5%
  • Zeus Bolts: 4.7/5
  • Favorite Album?: Nah

Graduation:

  • Year Released: 2007
  • Discography Chronology: Third album
  • Average Critical Reception: 79/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks (omitting skits): 11
  • Efficiency (omitting skits): 85%
  • Zeus Bolts: 4.6/5
  • Favorite Album?: Nah

The Life of Pablo:

  • Year Released: 2016 
  • Discography Chronology: Seventh album (most recent)
  • Average Critical Reception: 75/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks (omitting skits and freestyles): 13
  • Efficiency (omitting skits and freestyles): 81% 
  • Zeus Bolts: 4.5/5
  • Favorite Album?: Nah

 

50 CENT. Years Active: 19; Age: 41

Get Rich or Die Tryin’

  • Year Released: 2003
  • Discography Chronology: First album (not counting Power of the Dollar because it was unreleased)
  • Average Critical Reception: 73/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: 16
  • Efficiency (excluding intro): 89%
  • Zeus Bolts: 4.7/5
  • Favorite Album?: Yup

Curtis

  • Year Released: 2007
  • Discography Chronology: Third album
  • Average Critical Reception: 58/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: Seven
  • Efficiency: 39%
  • Zeus Bolts: 2/5
  • Favorite Album?: Nah

Animal Ambition

  • Year Released: 2014
  • Discography Chronology: Fifth album
  • Average Critical Reception: 53/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: Two
  • Efficiency: 18%
  • Zeus Bolts: 1/5
  • Favorite Album?: Nah

 

SCHOOLBOY Q. Years Active: 8, Age: 30

Setbacks

  • Year Released: 2011
  • Discography Chronology: First album
  • Average Critical Reception: 75/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: 14
  • Efficiency: 93%
  • Zeus Bolts: 4.5/5
  • Favorite Album?: Yup

Oxymoron (standard version; not deluxe)

  • Year Released: 2014
  • Discography Chronology: Third album
  • Average Critical Reception: 78/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: 10
  • Efficiency: 83%
  • Zeus Bolts: 4.3/5
  • Favorite Album?: Nah

Blank Face LP

  • Year Released: 2016
  • Discography Chronology: Fourth album (most recent)
  • Average Critical Reception: 81/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: 13
  • Efficiency: 87%
  • Zeus Bolts: 4.4/5
  • Favorite Album?: Nah

 

DRAKE. Years Active: 11, Age: 30

Thank Me Later

  • Year Released: 2010
  • Discography Chronology: First album
  • Average Critical Reception: 75/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: 12
  • Efficiency: 86%
  • Zeus Bolts: 4.4/5
  • Favorite Album?: Nah

Nothing Was the Same

  • Year Released: 2013
  • Discography Chronology: Third album
  • Average Critical Reception: 79/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: 11
  • Efficiency: 92%
  • Zeus Bolts: 4.7/5
  • Favorite Album?: Yup

Views

  • Year Released: 2016
  • Discography Chronology: Fourth album
  • Average Critical Reception: 69/100
  • Number of Dope Tracks: 15
  • Efficiency: 75%
  • Zeus Bolts: 4/5
  • Favorite Album?: Nah


Okay, let’s synthesize that data. Overall, we can’t be too mad at Wiz, considering his output follows a descending trend in critical reception, dope tracks, and overall album efficiency, after a rapper’s career beginning-midpoint. Jay Z, Drake, 50 Cent, and even Kanye released their best work within the first half of their tenures. (Of course there’s still room for Drake and Ye to continue a successful output). The only artist who breaks this cycle is bubbling superstar, ScHoolboy Q, who’s been around the least out of the five analyzed artists—he still has time to fall victim to this deteriorating tendency. 

I’m by no means rooting for what seems like an inevitable cycle; merely reporting the disheartening facts, while offering glimmers of hope. Let’s be real: no one stays on top forever; everyone’s productivity and efficiency eventually wanes and disappears. Jordan’s no longer leaping from the free-throw line, and Jay Z isn’t recreating Reasonable Doubt. Father time is undefeated. But, just because artists inevitably fall, how they decline is within their power.

As Buzz Lightyear once said, “It’s not flying, it’s falling with style!” The same principal coined by the beloved childhood hero can be applied to his Hip Hop counterparts. On September 11, 2007, Kanye’s Graduation eclipsed 50’s Curtis, marking the first time Ye beat the gangsta’ rapper. The second time is an ongoing victory: his career. 

Yeezy best work might be behind him, but his current music exceeds the majority of its competitors; evidenced by TLOP’s consistent place amongst major publication’s top-10 2016 albums—a year engorged with phenomenal projects. Ye hasn’t released an album, yet, that wasn’t warmly received. Although 808s and Yeezus experienced some initial resistance, overall they’re celebrated projects that ooze Kanye’s unmistakable soul; they’re even deemed necessary for Hip Hop’s evolution. He might be on the back nine, but Kanye’s 18th hole ETA is distant.  

50 on the other hand? Well, unfortunately after his two legendary albums, Get Rich or Die Tryin’ and The Massacre, there wasn’t much salvation for Curtis. He truly embodies a luminescent star: he brightly, intensely burned for a short period, and then, nothing. 50 represents the undesirable end of the bellcurve; the guys who never escaped their early successes—the Sam Bowies of the world. 

Whether they plateau and decline due to selling out, redundant content, or diminished talent, all rappers eventually fall off—some faster than others. 

But who’s to say that ScHoolboy Q or other artists currently enjoying their prime won’t heed Kanye’s path instead of 50’s? Who’s to say that Wiz doesn’t have another Kush & Orange Juice buried inside him? Declines may be inevitable, but their rate and grace are determined by the artist. Tim Duncan was effective up until his retirement, at 39-years-old. Hopefully today’s stars follow suite.